Kenya Seeks to Strike US Trade Deal by Year-End, Trade Minister Says

 

Kenya is pushing to finalize a reciprocal trade agreement with the United States by the end of 2025, according to Trade Minister Lee Kinyanjui. The urgency comes amid uncertainty over the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a duty-free access programme for many African exports to the U.S., which is set to expire at the end of September.

Why the Deadline and What’s at Stake

  • AGOA has been a critical component of Kenya’s export strategy. In 2024, Kenya exported goods worth about US$737 million to the U.S., accounting for around 10% of its total exports.
  • The textiles and apparel sector in Kenya relies heavily on AGOA for market access and competitiveness. It provides approximately 300,000 direct and indirect jobs. A sudden lapse or unfavourable change could severely disrupt production and jobs.
  • Moreover, in April 2025, Kenyan goods were hit by a 10% U.S. tariff under one of President Trump’s trade actions, adding pressure to secure stable preferential terms.

Negotiation History & Recent Moves

  • The trade talks between Kenya and the U.S. originally began in 2020 under the Trump administration. Under President Biden, negotiations resumed in the form of a “trade and investment partnership” aimed at lifting non-tariff barriers, but these had not been completed when Trump returned to office.
  • Recently, Trade Minister Kinyanjui met Jamieson Greer, the U.S. Trade Representative, in Washington. The two sides agreed to launch negotiations for a deal that would be reciprocal in nature.

Kenya’s Position & Goals

  • Kenya is hoping that a new deal will broadly replicate the benefits it currently enjoys under AGOA — namely duty-free access for a wide range of products and predictability for exporters.
  • Part of Kenya’s strategy is to ensure there is no abrupt “cliff-edge” impact if AGOA is not renewed. The government is seeking either an extension of AGOA or a smooth transition via a new trade agreement to protect industries, especially textiles, from sudden disruptions.

Challenges & Uncertainties

  • While Kenya is clear on its own timeline (seeking something on the table by end-2025), it acknowledges that reaching a deal depends heavily on the U.S. side.
  • The renewal of AGOA itself is uncertain; U.S. domestic politics and tariff policies complicate the picture.
  • Non-tariff barriers, regulatory differences, and whether the U.S. will agree to replicate AGOA’s broad coverage in a new reciprocal agreement are likely to be contentious. Kenya has been vague on all the technical terms so far.

Broader Geopolitical Context

  • Kenya’s move comes as it seeks to balance trade relations with major global powers. While it strengthens ties with the U.S., it has also deepened economic engagement with China.
  • For the U.S., renewing favourable trade arrangements with African nations or negotiating new ones is part of a broader strategy to maintain influence amid rivalries with China. AGOA has, in past years, been viewed as a tool in that soft-power toolkit.

If Kenya manages to succeed, it could both protect jobs and ensure stable export revenues, especially in vulnerable sectors like textiles. But much depends on how quickly both sides can resolve sticking points about tariff treatment, market access, and regulatory alignment.

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